Uncertainty Continues – The Weekly Insight (Ed. 133)

The content below represents the personal views and opinions of the authors. It should not be considered as investment or financial advice.

📚 News Of The Week 🎓

Written by @CryptoinsightUK - X/Twitter

Fear and Greed Index

This week, we're taking a forward-looking approach. Despite the current wave of negativity in the space, as reflected by the Fear and Greed Index, which has hovered in 'fear' or 'extreme fear' for the past month, I believe we are laying the groundwork for what could be one of the most explosive upward movements in crypto we've ever seen. While the exact timing is uncertain—whether it happens today, tomorrow, next week, or even a couple of months from now—the foundations are being set.

Abu Dhabi Based Wealth Fund Invests Into Binance

This week, we've witnessed a significant development: a $2 billion investment from the sovereign wealth fund of Abu Dhabi, MGX, into Binance. Not only that, but the entire investment was made in stablecoins. This move underscores the Middle East's positive stance on crypto. It also coincides with America's increasing bullish outlook on crypto, potentially paving the way for a digital asset stockpile and a Bitcoin strategic reserve.

Let's stay optimistic and focused on the opportunities ahead.

Ripple Secures DFSA License

In addition to the broader market developments, there's notable news for XRP holders. Ripple has secured a DFSA license, allowing them to offer regulated blockchain-powered payments in the UAE. This is a significant step forward and perhaps has been overlooked due to the prevailing fear in the market and the ongoing FUD surrounding Ripple and XRP. This regulatory approval could pave the way for more widespread adoption and greater legitimacy for Ripple's offerings.

Are We Gearing Up For Something Big?!

Taking all of this into account, alongside the broader macro backdrop—including the potential resolution of the Ukraine-Russia conflict and the market turbulence surrounding political figures like Trump—it's clear that we're on the cusp of potentially explosive price action in the crypto market. The expectation of significant stimulus measures in the USA, which could then be followed by similar actions globally, including in China, Europe, and potentially the UK, sets the stage for a strong bullish trend.

Given this context, I'm starting to reconsider my previous price targets. While I initially predicted around $180,000 for Bitcoin, considering insights from macroeconomists and historical cycles, I wonder if I may have underestimated the potential peak for this cycle. Especially when factoring in the significant drop we've seen in the DXY, the future could hold even greater price action than we anticipate.

Taking into account Raoul Pal's recent Twitter thread -

(7) Raoul Pal on X: "This too shall pass... Crypto is still feeling the tightening in liquidity from the stronger dollar and higher rates in Q4 2024. That is almost done and financial conditions are easing fast and M2 is headed back to new highs. This is just a regular correction... 1/ https://t.co/P2XH4h50nF" / X , one of the key points he highlights is that the top of Bitcoin's logarithmic channel could reach as high as $800,000. This aligns with what Arthur Hayes discusses in his recent "Kiss of Death" article -

KISS of Death - by Arthur Hayes - Crypto Trader Digest, where he explores the possibility of Bitcoin reaching a million dollars. When I first came across this, I thought it sounded hyperbolic and unlikely. However, now, considering the current sentiment reflected by the Fear and Greed Index, as well as the backtesting of previous all-time highs, the broader macroeconomic landscape, and potential policy shifts we've discussed earlier, this idea is becoming more plausible. Additionally, the evolving macro landscape within crypto, with regulatory advancements and the involvement of financial institutions, as well as the potential for tokenizing real-world assets, makes this scenario seem increasingly likely. I'm not saying it's a certainty, but it's definitely entering my thought process in a way it hadn't before. While I’m still unsure of the exact direction, it feels like the potential could be higher than I initially expected.

$XRP Update

I want to add a small update on XRP for you guys. If you've been following my Twitter, you’ll know I've been highlighting how XRP looks strong relative to the broader market. If we start seeing price action, as we’ve just discussed with the larger Bitcoin price targets, XRP could follow suit, especially if XRP dominance continues to push upward, as shown in this tweet. This could mean significantly higher price targets for XRP than I’ve previously mentioned.

https://x.com/Cryptoinsightuk/status/1900458100957614086

However, I’ll be sticking to my take-profit plan and will keep you updated on that as we move forward. With that said, take a look at the chart below. On the weekly timeframe, when we look at the stochastic RSI and the standard RSI, notice the last time they crossed bullish and where the stochastic stands right now. I’d love to hear your thoughts on what’s coming next for XRP.

Personally, I believe the push to the upside is imminent. I mentioned $5 as a target for March—have I got that right? Time will tell. We’ve got about two weeks left in March, so will this thing get moving, and will we hit those price targets? Or will I be a bit early? Those are my two concerns. I still think it’s inevitable, and I don’t believe I’m wrong, but I might be early. Regardless, with two weeks to go, I wouldn’t be surprised to see that $5 target.

📈 Charts Of The Week 📉

Written by @thecryptomann1 - X/Twitter

Bitcoin CME Futures

I just want to cover this chart in case there are readers out there who don’t really use it or aren’t familiar with what it is.

“The Bitcoin CME Futures chart tracks Bitcoin futures contracts traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). These futures allow traders to speculate on Bitcoin’s price without owning the actual asset. The CME Futures chart is a significant indicator in the crypto market because it reflects the positions of institutional traders, who are often the primary participants in these contracts.”

Recently, there have been some major gaps appearing on the chart, and I’ve seen a few accounts on CT discussing the gaps and how they’ve been basing a lot of their trades on the thesis that these gaps will be filled. When a gap appears on the Bitcoin CME Futures chart, it means there is a price difference between the close of one trading session and the open of the next. Gaps can happen for a variety of reasons but typically occur over weekends when the CME Futures market is closed (since it only operates during weekdays). When the market reopens, there might be significant price movement due to news, events, or market sentiment shifts that happened while the CME was closed.

Gaps don’t always have to be filled immediately, as they sometimes indicate a bullish move in the direction of the gap. But recently, with the most recent gaps, they’ve been useful for determining where $BTC’s price may potentially return to. If there isn’t sustained bullish movement after the gaps appear, they usually get filled. It’s not 100% foolproof, but it’s definitely a chart to add to your favorites list on TradingView.

$RUNE

I just want to clarify something before I talk about $RUNE. I don’t have 100% conviction on where the market is heading right now. If anything, I’m leaning towards $BTC tapping previous cycle ATHs, with liquidity sitting around $68,000 (give or take).

That said, I really like the $RUNE chart for a potential high-risk short-term trade. Check out the setup below. In my opinion, it looks good. It wicked into the green liquidity zone and range lows, and as I’m writing this, it’s breaking out of the downtrend it’s been trading in recently. This thing looks like it’s about to make a move, but like I mentioned, it’s high-risk due to the uncertainty with $BTC.

$BTC

The trend is your friend, until it isn’t. You’ve probably heard that before, and I think it rings true now more than ever. We’re currently in a short-term downtrend, so this is my base case/thoughts on what happens next for $BTC. This will be invalidated if we break the trend and go on to set higher highs and higher lows, but until then, I can only assume we’ll hit the liquidity at the previous cycle’s ATH.

If this happens, it’s going to be your last chance to get in before we see some crazy price action.

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